Visão Turim

The August edition of the Visão Turim webinar featured Fernando Verboonen (CIO), Henrique Santos (Partner and Portfolio Manager), and Pedro Hokama (Partner and Head of Liquid Assets), highlighting the developments in U.S. trade policy and the mixed signals from the global economy.

In the United States, the increase in import tariffs is expected to have a relevant impact on inflation and growth expectations. In this context, inflation data already show signs of pressure in the goods segment, while the labor market — although still resilient — indicates a meaningful slowdown at the margin, particularly following downward revisions to recent months’ data. As a result, markets have increased the implied probability of interest rate cuts resuming later this year. In addition, the ongoing discussions around the succession of the Fed Chair add an additional layer of uncertainty starting mid-next year.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings season remained strong, driven by profits from companies linked to artificial intelligence, whose infrastructure investments continue to accelerate. Revenue growth — rather than valuation multiples — has been the main driver of asset appreciation in this segment.

In Brazil, the key development of the month was the announcement of a 50% tariff on exports to the U.S., accompanied by a broad list of exceptions. Preliminary estimates suggest the effective rate may be closer to 30% — significantly lower, but still meaningful. Overall, the economy remains supported by a strong labor market and continued growth in real wages, though early signs of moderation have begun to appear.

The escalation of trade tensions and the prospect of high interest rates for an extended period resulted in weak performance for local assets. In equities, the month was also marked by a net outflow of foreign capital.