Turim Insights

The Jackson Hole Symposium, which brought together prominent figures in global monetary policy, the latest labor market data, and economic activity in the United States, were highlighted in this month’s “Visão Turim.”

Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole maintained a reasonably hawkish tone, emphasizing that he will take into consideration all economic data and the evolution of risk factors when deciding whether to implement further tightening or keep interest rates stable at the next Fed meeting.

In the U.S. labor market, the most recent data showed significant moderation, with a notable decline in job openings and a sharp increase in the unemployment rate. In addition to this, the deterioration of consumer credit and the depletion of the surplus savings accumulated during the pandemic contribute to a scenario of a potential economic slowdown in the United States.

In Brazil, the GDP once again surprised by rising more than expected in the second quarter. This strong result came despite a correction in the agricultural sector (-0.9%), which had grown by more than 20% in the first quarter of 2023. Now, the main challenge for the country will be reconciling the 2024 budget with the new fiscal rule.

The webinar featured Gustavo Marini, Founder and Chairman of Turim; Fernando Verboonen, CIO (Chief Investment Officer) of Turim; Thiago Campos, Economist at Turim; and Rodrigo Louro, CEO of Turim UK and Head of Research.