Turim Insights

The August edition of Visão Turim brought together Fernando Verboonen (Partner and CIO at Turim), Thiago Campos (Economist at Turim), and Eduardo Lopes (Liquid Assets Analyst at Turim) to discuss developments in the global economic landscape, the latest signals from inflation and economic activity in the United States, volatility in technology markets, and the main challenges facing the Brazilian economy.

Highlights:

• Global outlook: Oil remains an important source of uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions and risks to supply. However, weaker demand from China has helped contain a more significant rise in prices.

• United States: The latest inflation and labor market data came in weaker, easing some concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. At the same time, shifts in the Fed’s communication continue to add volatility to the U.S. yield curve, particularly putting pressure on longer-term Treasury yields.

• Global markets: July was marked by significant volatility and dispersion among companies exposed to artificial intelligence and semiconductors, following the strong gains recorded in previous months. Despite the correction, the earnings season continued to show robust profit growth among U.S. companies, reinforcing the importance of fundamentals in an increasingly selective market environment.

• Brazil: Economic activity continues to slow gradually, with no signs of a recession, while inflation dynamics were more favorable during the month. Nevertheless, the combination of high real interest rates, deteriorating credit quality, and the absence of a clearer fiscal agenda remains one of the main challenges facing the Brazilian economy.